PROJECT TITLE :

An Efficient Method for Reliability Analysis of Systems Under Epistemic Uncertainty Using Belief Function Theory

ABSTRACT:

We tend to present an efficient methodology based mostly on the inclusion-exclusion principle to compute the reliability of systems within the presence of epistemic uncertainty. A known disadvantage of belief functions and alternative imprecise probabilistic theories is that their manipulation is computationally demanding. Thus, we investigate some conditions below which the measures of belief perform theory are additive. If this property is met, the application of belief functions is a lot of computationally economical. It is shown that these conditions hold for minimal cuts and paths in reliability theory. A direct implication of this result is that the credal state (state of beliefs) about the failing (operating) behavior of parts will not have an effect on the credal state concerning the working (failing) behavior of the system. This result's proven employing a reliability analysis approach primarily based on belief function theory. This result implies that the bounding interval of the system's reliability will be obtained with 2 easy calculations using strategies the same as those of classical probabilistic approaches. A discussion concerning the applicability of the mentioned theorems for non-coherent systems is additionally proposed.